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• October-2019: The Banking Industry
  We are of the view that the banking outlook is relatively stable in the medium term. This is supported by relatively stable profitability, maintained liquidity and strong capital. We expect liquidity conditions to start loosening, along with accommodative monetary policies adopted by Bank Indonesia. This is reflected by a decrease in the loan to deposit ratio and a decrease in short-term interest rates on the interbank market. More detail ...
• August-2019: Base Metal Industry
  We see downward pressure on base metal prices in the short term in line with the prospect of a slowdown in the global economy, the tension from the trade war, and the fundamental conditions of supply and demand. The outlook for the domestic industry is highly exposed to global demand, because most of the output produced is shipped overseas as domestic absorption is limited. More detail ...
• June-2019: Non-Life Insurance Industry
  We see the outlook of the non-life insurance industry as relatively stable. We expect growth this year to be in line with the 10% target, even though challenges remain in a number of segments. More detail ...
• April-2019: Food & Beverage Industry
  We are of the view that the food and beverage industry will be stable in the short term. We are also of the view that growth will be prospective in the short term and higher than Indonesia's economic growth, supported by stable inflation, a level of confidence and maintained purchasing power. The per capita expenditure for packaged food and beverage products also continues to grow, driven by an increasingly urban society and changes in consumption patterns among the Indonesian people. More detail ...
• February-2019: Multifinance Industry
  We are of the view that the growth outlook for the multifinance financing industry is still challenging. Funding is becoming tighter as interest rates increase, adding to the challenge from the disruption by financial technology companies (fintech). More detail ...
• December-2018: Property Industry
  We are of the view that the demand prospects of the property industry will be weak in the short-term, but we also see supply continuing to grow, creating excess in the market, especially in the office and retail spaces. Higher interest rates and lower affordability will limit demand recovery as mortgages become more expensive. The shift to digital platforms could also disrupt businesses, such as retail, with conventional stores beginning to relocate to online spaces. More detail ...
• October-2018: The Banking Industry
  We are of the view that the outlook for the banking industry is relatively stable in the medium term. Growth prospects are likely to be moderate, in line with increasing risk pressure stemming from rising interest rates and rupiah depreciation. Banking liquidity is likely to be relatively moderate, as funding from deposits offsets credit growth in line with banking efforts to raise deposit rates. Banking capital has remained strong, with the capital adequacy ratio far above regulatory requirements. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
• August-2018: Continuity Of Infrastructure Projects Creates Market Growth
  We are of the view that the construction industry will see stable growth in the medium term. Continuous infrastructure development will sustain demand for construction services, but demand from the property sector will remain sluggish in line with more expensive borrowing costs. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
• June-2018: Downward slope of financing growth since July 2018
  The multifinance industry (MFI) has experienced slower growth, largely due to weaker demand for automotive financing. Some 59% of MFI financing receivables comes from the multipurpose financing sector, which mainly consists of automotive financing. The sector’s growth rate has been declining since mid-2017, along with low multipurpose financing growth. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
• April-2018: Wireless Telecommunications: Strengthening The Business Model Of Data-Driven Services
  PEFINDO is of the view that the wireless telecommunications industry will be stable in the medium term. We expect data-driven services to be the key driver, supported by a favorable environment including increasing smartphone penetration, improved affordability of higher data plans, and emerging mobile app-based services. Over the longer term, however, we expect mobile data and over-the-top (OTT) content services to cannibalize legacy voice and short message service (SMS) services. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
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• October-2019: Indonesia’s Comparative Advantage
  PEFINDO is of the view that the Indonesian economy is becoming “the most beautifull” investment destination among its peers nowadays. The fundamentals of the domestic economy are relatively stable, indicated by a decrease in risk perception, stable returns and upgraded rating. But although global recession indicators have recently stopped flashing red, given the normalized yield curve and progress in the US-China trade negotiations, there are still uncertainties ahead, especially from trade tensions and geopolitical risk. More detail ...
• August-2019: Bank Indonesia’s Changing Stance
  In 2019, the majority of central banks changed their policy stances from hawkish in 2018 to dovish. Bank Indonesia (BI) appears to be following this changing global monetary policy trend. In the first quarter of 2019, Indonesia’s central bank still gave hawkish signals in looking at the economy. But at the beginning of the second quarter of 2019, it began to turn around and start giving dovish signals to the domestic economy. More detail ...
• June-2019: Global Investment Shifts Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
  As a developing country, Indonesia is not immune to the impacts of the current global economic condition. This was seen in the GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2019, which declined to 5.07% from 5.18% in the last quarter of 2018. Economic growth for the full year of 2018 was 5.17%. More detail ...
• April-2019: Bank Indonesia’s Dilemma: Reduce Domestic Cost of Funds or Maintain Capital Inflow?
  Indonesia's trade balance is showing signs of recovery, recording two consecutive months of surpluses at USD329.5 million in February and USD540.2 million in March. This is good news as it influences reserves assets, rupiah stabilization and economic growth. As pressure from the trade sector is easing, the US Federal Reserve has indicated it will keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% this year, so opportunities for Bank Indonesia to reduce its policy rate (and cost of funds) are increasing. More detail ...
• February-2019: Growing Sustainable Debt Instrument Trend
  PEFINDO is of the view that the trend towards issuing sustainable debt instruments — green bonds, green commercial papers, and sustainability-linked loans — is growing significantly. Globally, the sustainable debt instruments market surged by 26% year-on-year (yoy) in 2018 to a record USD247 billion, on the back of solid growth from the green bonds sector and the emergence of a number of new products. More detail ...
• December-2018: PEFINDO 2019 Economic and Corporate Bond Outlook
  PEFINDO forecasts that the external and internal challenges faced by the Indonesian economy in 2018 will still linger over the course of 2019. The monetary policy normalization of the US Federal Reserve or Fed (followed by the European Central Bank or ECB and the Bank of Japan or BoJ), as well as the US-China trade war will continue to be the main challenges for the Indonesian economy in 2019. More detail ...
• October-2018: Time Consistency to Stabilize Rupiah
  We are of the view that the time consistency (and credibility) of Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy will be understood by economic agents, and will consequently stabilize the rupiah. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
• August-2018: Finding The Rupiah’s New Equilibrium
  We are of the view that financial stability, especially the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, is a big priority for the Indonesian economy, to prevent the negative impact of global volatility and promote economic growth. Negative global sentiment from the hawkish trend of several major global central banks and the rising trade tensions between major global economies have pressured the rupiah exchange rate since early 2018. Although we calculate the rupiah as still undervalued by 27.26% to 10.22% to the USD, negative global sentiments mean we predict the rupiah will continue to depreciate at least to the end of 2018. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
• June-2018: Pressures on Indonesia’s Financial Markets Don’t Ease
  PEFINDO is of the view that the pressures on Indonesia’s financial markets – the domestic bond market (especially government bonds), stock market, and currency exchange market – have been increasing since the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it would raise its interest rate (Fed Fund Rate, or FFR) several times this year. As risk and uncertainty still prevail over the global economy, and the domestic real sector has showed weak progress, we still project that volatility and pressure on Indonesia’s financial markets will continue. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
• April-2018: Another Fed Rate Hike? So What We Should Do?
  We appreciate the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, which will be done several more times and is primarily aimed at normalizing asset prices and reducing the possibility of bubbles in the future. Although there are some trade-offs, and we can see the negative sentiment in the Indonesian financial market, our real sector (especially exports) has an advantage in this situation. So, it would be wise to view this negative sentiment as a short-term cycle, as fundamentally our economy is in good shape. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
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• October-2019: Corporate Bonds
  We see the issuance of debt securities as increasingly lively toward the close of 2019. As of November 27, 2019, the issuance for the year totaled IDR129.4 trillion, and for the full year of 2019 it is will exceed the previous year’s total of IDR132.4 trillion. More detail ...
• August-2019: Corporate Bonds
  We expect issuance costs to be lower in the near term. Lower interest rates and benchmark yields are catalysts to reduce funding costs in the next few months. Based on IBPA data, corporate bond yields for major tenors, three years and five years, closed at 7,698% and 7,940% as of September 26, 2019, down 153bps and 131bps, respectively. More detail ...
• June-2019: Corporate Bond Market
  We expect the positive trend in the government bond market to boost the performance of the corporate bond market. Corporate bond yields continued to fall, heading to their lowest point in the past three years. As of July 16, 2019, yields for the three-year and five-year tenored AAA-rated corporate bonds were 7.407% and 7.777%, respectively, dropping by 183 bps and 147 bps YtD. More detail ...
• April-2019: High Costs Reduce New Issuance
  At the beginning of 2019, apart from the higher cost of funds, presidential and legislative elections also encouraged companies to wait and see. Even though the effective yields of corporate bonds have dropped, there was still a slight pause to be effective in establishing corporate bond coupons (Exhibit 9). Based on Bloomberg data, the effective yield of corporate bonds ranked AAA with a three-year tenor to 8,347% as of April 25, 2019, down 89 basis points from the end of the previous year. For the same rating of a five-year tenor, the yield fell 79 basis points to 8.464%. More detail ...
• February-2019: Multifinance Industry
  We are of the view that the growth outlook for the multifinance financing industry is still challenging. Funding is becoming tighter as interest rates increase, adding to the challenge from the disruption by financial technology companies (fintech). More detail ...
• December-2018: Corporate Bond Forecast For 2019
  The issuance of corporate bonds in 2019 is forecasted to reach IDR135.2 trillion, relatively stable compared to 2018 (see Exhibit 6). Although the prospects for 2019 are quite good, a number of factors are expected to challenge the corporate debt market, particularly the impact of the increase in benchmark interest rates, the wait-and-see approach among investors, and stricter regulations. More detail ...
• October-2018: Corporate Bond Performance Lacks Foreign Sentiment
  The corporate bond market is performing quite well with a positive return year-to-date, although still below 2.0%. Market exposure is not as big as in government bonds as foreign ownership is not too large. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
• August -2018: Corporate Bond Market
  forward, not only in terms of more expensive funding costs but also due to the tightening of regulations by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). At the same time, the depreciation of the rupiah may also limit expansion plans. Thus, we expect corporate bond issuance to be more limited in the next few months. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
• June-2018: Corporate Bonds
  Financial markets have entered the era of higher interest rates. With rising government yields, corporate bond yields also began increasing. By the end of June 2018, three-year corporate bonds for AAA-rated companies were trading at 9.179%, an increase of 152 basis points from its position at the end of March 2018, while five-year tenor bonds saw their yield increase by 161 bps to 9.128%. For the lower BBB rating, the yield increased 153 bps and 158 bps to 12.500% and 12.909%, respectively, for the three- and five-year tenors. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
• April-2018: Corporate bonds: new issuance remains high amid underperformance pressures
  Following trend in government bonds, the effective yield of corporate bonds also climbed. As of April 30, 2018, for AAA rated issuers, yield has risen to 7,941% (+28 bps) and 8.004% (+49 bps) for 3 and 5 year tenor, respectively. Capital gain of corporate bond (indicated in the change of INDOBEX Total Return Index) fell 0.6% month to month (MoM). On year to date basis, corporate bond market still recorded a positive return of 0.7% YTD, better than the government bonds in line with the weaker capital outflow sentiment. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
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• June 2015 : Indonesian Economic Outlook
  Announcement of the Central Bureau of Statistics on Indonesia's economic growth during the first quarter of 2015 shows that the economic performance is less encouraging. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia's economy grew only by 4.7% (yoy). The economic growth is far lower than the growth in the first quarter of 2014 which was 5.14%. In fact, economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 is the lowest growth in the first quarter since 2009. The slowdown of economic growth was indicated by a slowdown in some leading indicators such as sales of cars and motorcycles, sales of cement, and electricity consumption. More detail ...
• January 2013: 2012 Economic Review
  Indonesia economy 2012, strong domestic demand offsets contracting external demand. Private consumption continues to be the main driver for growth cutbacks and the still weak financial system weighted growth prospect in the former while their spillover effects held back momentum in the latter, including the BRIC. The forecast for Indonesia was also trimmed down, but nonetheless its rate of growth remains well above many others; it is expected to be the second highest growing economy among the G-20. More detail ...
• January 2011 : Indonesia Economic Outlook - Indonesia remain attractive among the Emerging Market
  Indonesia’s strong fundamentals and macro economic stability attract portfolio or direct investments. Indonesia economic growth (GDP in %) is supported by strong domestic factors (consumption and investment) and high external demands, in particular demand for export in commodity. Households’ consumption in 2011 is estimated to continue to increase in the range of 4.8% - 5.3% due to improvement in income level, decline in unemployment rate, and the trend in commodity price increase which will further support exporters buying power. The income per capita indicator also goes up to USD3.000 per capita in 2010. This increase is three times higher than that of 2001. More detail ...
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