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• December-2020: Property Industry Prospects is Weak in The Rental Segments but Relatively Tough in Th
  We are of the view that the prospects of the property industry are mixed in the short term. We expect sluggish demand for the rental property market, while for the selling segment, especially landed houses, demand to remain quite strong. The property market has been operating on its fundamentals following the end of the commodity boom in 2014. Starting from early 2020, however, the Covid-19 pandemic brought about a contraction of economic activity, hence economic growth, resulting in the subdued demand for rental properties and to a lesser extent properties for sale. More detail ...
• October-2020: Banking Industry
  We view the outlook for the banking industry to remain stable in the medium term, although the growth prospects and profitability may show a weakening trend in the short term period. The increasing economic risk due to the COVID-19 pandemic weakens loan growth, which may cause contraction until the end of the year. With weaker loan growth, the strongest pressure was felt in the profitability indicators; banks are suffering lower interest revenue - but having learned from past crises – keeping abundant liquidity to ensure survival during this difficult time. Furthermore, the pressure also comes from incurring higher provision costs due to asset quality deterioration and loan restructuring, as they have to absorb the cost of debtors struggling in making timely payments. More detail ...
• August-2020: Construction Industry
  We view the outlook for construction industry will be challenging as growth prospects are weaker than we anticipated. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in reduced construction activities following the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) imposed by the government to curb the outbreak, consequently delaying project deliveries. Demand is also expected to be weaker in the short term on the back of delays and postponement of several infrastructure projects and the economic fallout caused by COVID-19. More detail ...
• June-2020: Non-Life Insurance Industry
  We are of the view that the outlook for the non-life insurance industry is negative in the short term, given the COVID-19 pandemic impact that disrupted economic activities and significantly lowered demand for the non-life insurance industry, increasing the overall risk profile. Growth has significantly dropped to 0.4% in 2020 in comparison to 14.1% in FY19, and in our opinion, there is still a risk of further decline if the recovery process of economic activities are longer than initially projected. More detail ...
• April-2020: Power & Energy In Indonesia
  PEFINDO is of the view that long-term energy demand in Indonesia is correlated with the growing population and economic growth. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) predicted electricity needs in the country will grow by 7% every year until 2027, driven by domestic household consumption. This affects the trade deficit, especially in relation to crude oil (including oil fuel) and the gas sector. To mitigate the energy imbalance, the government is committed to achieving 23% renewable energy in the national energy mix by 2025, in alignment with its commitment to mitigate climate change. More detail ...
• February-2020: Slowing Growth Continues
  The finance industry reported weak financing growth of 3.7% year-on-year (YoY) to IDR 452.2 trillion in 2019, lower than the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the last four years of 3.9%. This percentage is also lower compared to the previous year, which was 5.2% YoY. More detail ...
• December-2019: Indonesia’s Petrochemical Industry
  We are of the view that the outlook for the petrochemical industry is stable. Prospects for demand growth are positive in the medium term, although there are short-term risks from the slowdown in the production of plastic and rubber-based goods. Even low oil prices allow producers to maintain a stable level of profit. From the supply side, Indonesia needs new investment to reduce import dependency, especially for aromatic products. More detail ...
• October-2019: The Banking Industry
  We are of the view that the banking outlook is relatively stable in the medium term. This is supported by relatively stable profitability, maintained liquidity and strong capital. We expect liquidity conditions to start loosening, along with accommodative monetary policies adopted by Bank Indonesia. This is reflected by a decrease in the loan to deposit ratio and a decrease in short-term interest rates on the interbank market. More detail ...
• August-2019: Base Metal Industry
  We see downward pressure on base metal prices in the short term in line with the prospect of a slowdown in the global economy, the tension from the trade war, and the fundamental conditions of supply and demand. The outlook for the domestic industry is highly exposed to global demand, because most of the output produced is shipped overseas as domestic absorption is limited. More detail ...
• June-2019: Non-Life Insurance Industry
  We see the outlook of the non-life insurance industry as relatively stable. We expect growth this year to be in line with the 10% target, even though challenges remain in a number of segments. More detail ...
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• December-2020: Probability of Yield in 2021: How Low Can You Go?
  PEFINDO is of the view that the success in vaccination program and the sound fundamental of domestic economy, in addition to the global push factor hopefully will have a positive impact on Indonesia’s financial market, hence improving Indonesia’s sovereign yield. The accommodative stance of the central bank (Bank Indonesia – BI) will lead to reopening of widespread business activity and the fiscal stimuli will spur demand of the low and middle level. In the meantime, the sell-off behavior in the global safe-haven asset is expected to drive a resurgence of foreign capital inflows to domestic financial markets. More detail ...
• October-2020: Turning Point To Accelerate Economic Recovery
  PEFINDO is of the view that uncertainties have reached its peak and domestic economic recession has bottomed out; hence, it is expected that the economy will gradually return to its normal path. Much of these favorable developments were due to the Rp695,2 trillion government budget allocation to mitigate the social and economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The latest (August) Retail Sales Survey performed by Bank Indonesia shows an an encouraging retail sales performance across most commodity groups. Furthermore, the latest (Q3) Prompt Manufacturing Index (PMI), also conducted by Bank Indonesia, jumped from only 28.6 point in the second quarter to 44.9 point in the third quarter, and is expected to increase slightly to 47.2 point in the next quarter (Q4) of 2020. More detail ...
• August-2020: Vaccine: The Hope
  PEFINDO is of the view that an effective and mass produced COVID-19 vaccine is the key to ending the current global health crisis and its devastating economic impacts. As of August 13, 2020, just one such vaccine has been approved for early use, “Sputnik V”, developed by the Gamaleya Research Institute in Moscow, although experts have raised considerable concerns over its safety and efficacy given that it has not yet completed Phase 3 clinical trials. More detail ...
• June-2020: Possibilities and Uncertainties Ahead
  PEFINDO is of the view that with so many possibilities and uncertainties, economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic could be worse than ever expected. As there are no signs that the pandemic will ease up any time soon, economic growth still faces several risks and challenges ahead. Governments will have to delicately balance the needs of the economy alongside the need to break the chains of virus transmissions. More detail ...
• April-2020: Adapting to the New Normal
  PEFINDO is of the view that the spread of COVID-19 is changing how we live, confining many people to their homes and radically altering the way we move about. Since the magnitude and speed of the collapse in activities that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetime, and the pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. Despite the negative effects, the pandemic has already changed consumer behavior, with more concern for health and boosting the online sectors, and drawing some of us to altruism and the collective economy rather than an agglomeration of fragmented individuals. More detail ...
• February-2020: Coronavirus : The Downside Risk and Policy Maker Response
  PEFINDO is of the view that the rapid spread of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) that was first detected in Wuhan, China, on December 31, 2019, will have a negative impact on global economic growth and Indonesia as well. Supply chains are disrupted, demand for final goods has weakened, commodity prices are slumping, and risk aversion sentiment has hit investors on a global scale. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), we have to realize that the fatality rate of Covid-19 as of March 1, 2020, was only at about 3.2%, lower than the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus that killed about 10% of all infected individuals and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in 2012 that had a fatality rate of around 35%. More detail ...
• December-2019: Recession Risks Are Receding But We Still Face Uncertainty
  PEFINDO is of the view that the threat of a recession in 2020 has receded, mainly due to the normalization of the yield curve and the progress in the trade negotiations between the United States of America (US) and China. However, there are still uncertainties ahead. The US and other countries may have their own respective risks, and interconnected geopolitical threats and other non-economic risks need to be navigated in order to take advantage of more opportunities in 2020. More detail ...
• October-2019: Indonesia’s Comparative Advantage
  PEFINDO is of the view that the Indonesian economy is becoming “the most beautifull” investment destination among its peers nowadays. The fundamentals of the domestic economy are relatively stable, indicated by a decrease in risk perception, stable returns and upgraded rating. But although global recession indicators have recently stopped flashing red, given the normalized yield curve and progress in the US-China trade negotiations, there are still uncertainties ahead, especially from trade tensions and geopolitical risk. More detail ...
• August-2019: Bank Indonesia’s Changing Stance
  In 2019, the majority of central banks changed their policy stances from hawkish in 2018 to dovish. Bank Indonesia (BI) appears to be following this changing global monetary policy trend. In the first quarter of 2019, Indonesia’s central bank still gave hawkish signals in looking at the economy. But at the beginning of the second quarter of 2019, it began to turn around and start giving dovish signals to the domestic economy. More detail ...
• June-2019: Global Investment Shifts Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
  As a developing country, Indonesia is not immune to the impacts of the current global economic condition. This was seen in the GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2019, which declined to 5.07% from 5.18% in the last quarter of 2018. Economic growth for the full year of 2018 was 5.17%. More detail ...
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• December-2020: Global Financial Markets Remain Conducive to Foreign Investment Inflows
  We believe that external sentiment will continue to support the Indonesian bond market's performance in the short term. Global investors are optimistic that the rapid economic recovery is on track. The encouraging development of the COVID19 vaccine is a positive sentiment representing a leading indicator that the economic recovery will materialize in the near future. Another driving factor contributing to the accelerated recovery of the global economy is the economic stimulus. More detail ...
• October-2020: Corporate Bond Yield Rose Slightly as Investors Demanded Higher Premiums
  Corporate bond yields tended to rise at the end of the second quarter of 2020. Compared to the end of July 2020, the yield on corporate bonds with an AAA rating increased by 40-85 basis points. As of October 9, 2020, the yield for a one-year tenor rose 40 bps to 5,621%, and three-year and five-year tenors increased 62 bps and 85 bps to 7.191% and 7.699%. Weakening household demand weighed on company financial profiles, increasing the risk of default, and encouraging investors to demand higher premiums. More detail ...
• August-2020: Corporate Bonds Effective Yield of Corporate Bonds Fell In Line with Government Bonds
  Low government bond yields pushed down corporate bond yields, which should make new funding costs less expensive. The effective yields of three-year and five-year corporate bonds fell from 8.043% and 8.598% at the end of March 2020 to 6.561% and 7.172 respectively, on August 7, 2020. More detail ...
• June-2020: Easing Economic Policy Amid The COVID-19 Pandemic
  We expect continued loose economic policies in the foreseeable future. Many countries are wary of the possibility of a recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which means we see the potential for global interest rates to remain low in line with the easing of monetary policy. More detail ...
• April-2020: The Countercyclical Policy Effect on the
  PEFINDO is of the view that soon after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, the global financial market rapidly moved into unprecedented territory. The yield on Indonesia’s 10-year government bond jumped 140 basis points (bps) from 6.97% on March 11 to 8.37% on March 24. Pressure further increased when global oil prices tumbled below zero for the first time in history. Luckily, the countercyclical policy response with ultra loose monetary policy and fiscal stimuli from many countries, including Indonesia, gives rise to expectations that economic conditions would soon ease and economies will start to recover. More detail ...
• February-2020: Yields Lower But Prefer to Owe Abroad
  Before they began crawling up with foreign investor capital outflows, yields dropped quite significantly at the beginning of this year. But a low yield does not necessarily encourage the issuance of corporate debt securities in the domestic market. According to Bloomberg data, the effective yield of three-year and five-year tenor corporate bonds dropped by 62 bps and 30 bps year-to-date, respectively, to 6.728% and 7.242% as of March 2, 2020. More detail ...
• December-2019: Although corporate bond yields have fallen, corporate debt coupons are still resistant to going down to a comparable rate.
  We see this because the market is not liquid and demand is smaller than the government bond market. Many institutional investors still favor the government debt market; as a result they still have high returns to absorb the corporate debt. They usually also buy and hold bonds until maturity rather than transacting them for capital gains. More detail ...
• October-2019: Corporate Bonds
  We see the issuance of debt securities as increasingly lively toward the close of 2019. As of November 27, 2019, the issuance for the year totaled IDR129.4 trillion, and for the full year of 2019 it is will exceed the previous year’s total of IDR132.4 trillion. More detail ...
• August-2019: Corporate Bonds
  We expect issuance costs to be lower in the near term. Lower interest rates and benchmark yields are catalysts to reduce funding costs in the next few months. Based on IBPA data, corporate bond yields for major tenors, three years and five years, closed at 7,698% and 7,940% as of September 26, 2019, down 153bps and 131bps, respectively. More detail ...
• June-2019: Corporate Bond Market
  We expect the positive trend in the government bond market to boost the performance of the corporate bond market. Corporate bond yields continued to fall, heading to their lowest point in the past three years. As of July 16, 2019, yields for the three-year and five-year tenored AAA-rated corporate bonds were 7.407% and 7.777%, respectively, dropping by 183 bps and 147 bps YtD. More detail ...
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• June 2015 : Indonesian Economic Outlook
  Announcement of the Central Bureau of Statistics on Indonesia's economic growth during the first quarter of 2015 shows that the economic performance is less encouraging. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia's economy grew only by 4.7% (yoy). The economic growth is far lower than the growth in the first quarter of 2014 which was 5.14%. In fact, economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 is the lowest growth in the first quarter since 2009. The slowdown of economic growth was indicated by a slowdown in some leading indicators such as sales of cars and motorcycles, sales of cement, and electricity consumption. More detail ...
• January 2013: 2012 Economic Review
  Indonesia economy 2012, strong domestic demand offsets contracting external demand. Private consumption continues to be the main driver for growth cutbacks and the still weak financial system weighted growth prospect in the former while their spillover effects held back momentum in the latter, including the BRIC. The forecast for Indonesia was also trimmed down, but nonetheless its rate of growth remains well above many others; it is expected to be the second highest growing economy among the G-20. More detail ...
• January 2011 : Indonesia Economic Outlook - Indonesia remain attractive among the Emerging Market
  Indonesia’s strong fundamentals and macro economic stability attract portfolio or direct investments. Indonesia economic growth (GDP in %) is supported by strong domestic factors (consumption and investment) and high external demands, in particular demand for export in commodity. Households’ consumption in 2011 is estimated to continue to increase in the range of 4.8% - 5.3% due to improvement in income level, decline in unemployment rate, and the trend in commodity price increase which will further support exporters buying power. The income per capita indicator also goes up to USD3.000 per capita in 2010. This increase is three times higher than that of 2001. More detail ...
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