• Economic Update

    • economic update
    • economicupdate
      • February-2023: The Economy in Early 2023: The Promise of a Recovery But Need to Remain Vigilant
        The world economy in 2023 is expected to grow higher than previous estimates in line with inflation, which has reached a turning point in several countries, and monetary policy tightening, which has begun to slow down. Nonetheless, the risk of monetary policy tightening that was pursued so high throughout 2022 requires continued vigilance for the risks, especially the impact on corporate performance in various parts of the world. From domestic development, economic conditions that keep showing good performance continue to provide their own optimism. The central bank has kept interest rates on hold since February 2023 as inflation is expected to continue to slow and decline. This then gives a positive sentiment even though the risks from the policies posed also need to be watched out for. The condition of the national macro economy, which continues to show good performance as reflected in the latest leading indicators, is also expected to be followed by the company's need for funding to expand in order to respond to the increase in demand. This then encourages the issuance of bonds to grow in the first two months of 2023 when compared to the first two months of the previous year. More detail ...
      • December-2022: Indonesia Economic Outlook 2023: Maintaining Resilience Amid High Uncertainty
        The war between Russia and Ukraine has brought uncertainty back to levels above the average for the past 22 years. Increased uncertainty was caused by soaring commodity prices and resulted in rising inflation in all countries in the world. This then made central banks in various countries, including developed countries, increase their interest rates to tame the rising inflation. However, this policy had an impact on weakening global economic growth which has occurred since the second semester and is expected to continue in 2023. Nonetheless, the Indonesian economy, which until the third quarter of 2022 managed to achieve a solid economic recovery with growth of 5.7%, is expected to continue to recover along with various leading indicators which are still showing good performance. Throughout 2022, Indonesia become one of the countries that have succeeded in suppressing inflation due to an optimal mix of monetary and fiscal policies, so that the soaring price that occurs at the global level are not fully transmitted to the domestic economy. In 2023, PEFINDO projects that the Indonesian economy will be able to grow in the range of 4.9% - 5.2% supported by solid consumption, and the windfall effect of rising commodity prices will still leave opportunities that can be exploited to boost exports. With the global economic downturn that is expected to give a minimum impact on the domestic economy, business activities are predicted to continue the positive trend and encourage the issuance of corporate debt securities which are expected to reach IDR144.24 – 158.27 trillion. Challenges such as interest rates and inflation which remain high, the value of bonds with a lower maturity in 2023, and the wait-and-see condition that might occur in line with conditions leading up to the elections, still overshadow the Indonesian debt market in 2023. However, the opportunities that emerged from the maintained macroeconomic conditions and the still attractive Indonesian bond market, could also encourage the issuance of bonds to be higher in 2023. More detail ...
      • October-2022: Indonesia’s Economy Records Impressive Achievements Amid a Slowing Global Economy and
        The global economy is overshadowed by a divergent recovery and slower economic growth projections up to 2023. It is triggered by the high inflation in various countries that lead the central banks to raise their interest rates. Amid those situations, Indonesia can still record impressive economic growth in Q3-2022 with the condition of inflation that is still manageable and lowers unemployment. Leading indicators for the real sector show good prospects and continue to strengthen. These conditions indicate that economic recovery will continue. More detail ...
      • August-2022: Indonesia Recovery Continues But Facing The Challenge of Increasing Global Commodity P
        In Q2-2022, the global economy is still faced with various uncertainties that pressure economic recovery. In a report released in July, the IMF revised its projection for global economic growth of 0.4% from the previous 3.6% to only 3.2%. Various uncertainties that occur every day in the world and pose a downside risk include the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict which then has an impact on global supply chain disruptions, rising energy and food prices, as well as the normalization of monetary policy in various countries triggered by rising inflation. More detail ...
      • June-2022: While Global May Experience "W" Economic Recovery what About Indonesia?
        We view that the domestic economic recovery remains on track. We maintain our forecast for economic growth in the 5.11% - 5.46% range for FY2022, as we projected earlier in the year. Stronger consumption and investment will be supported by prudent monetary policy, accommodating external pressures while supporting the domestic recovery. However, we look at risk factors for the domestic economy. Pressure on the rupiah may remain due to the interest rate disparity and a lower trade balance surplus going forward. In addition, high energy prices can increase production costs, spur inflation and weaken household purchasing power. And these conditions affect the prospects for business profitability - as well as investment - and household demand for goods and services. More detail ...
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