• Economic Update

    • economic update
    • economicupdate
      • February-2022: The Impact of BI Policies and Regulations on Multifinance Sector
        PEFINDO estimates the consequence of increase of IDR Reserve Requirement Ratio, the supply of credit will be declined. Therefore, assuming that demand for funds in the finance market remain stable, the interest rate for credit of motoried vehicle will increase. In addition, the bond market yield in the multifinance market is also expected will increase, following the increase of credit market interest rate and the Federal Funds rate. The demand of finance corporation for banking funds will also decrease along with rise of bank loan interest rate. More detail ...
      • December-2021: The Development of Macroeconomics and Its Impact on Tourism Industry
        Year 2021 has been ended with positive sign of recovery. The economic growth in 2021 is expected to be 3.7 percent YoY. The inflation has been kept stable at 1.8 percent. Government Bonds yields is maintained at 6.5 percent. IDR Exchange rate is also stable, around IDR14.200-IDR14.600 per USD. That supports a positive impact on tourism industry. Given all indicators, the Indonesian economy in year 2022 will grow strong as before the pandemic. The expected economic growth in year 2022 will be between 5.0 to 5.2 percent. However, there are some challenges for the Indonesian economy ahead, especially for tourism industry. First, the on-going pandemic. The ongoing pandemic will cause the recovery of economic activities slow down. Second, the increase of price of cooking oil. This increase has led to increase of inflation that hikes the price of food and beverages, as part of tourism industry. Third, the increase of federal funds rate, as has been announced by the Federal Reserves. This increase will lead to the increase of domestic interest rate. Those three variables will challenge the Indonesian tourism industry during 2022, causing some obstacles to growth. More detail ...
      • October-2021: Macroeconomy Forecasting Analysis Q4 2021
        PEFINDO is of the view 3 scenarios regarding economic growth in Q4 2021. Those scenarios are low economic growth, moderate economic growth and high economic growth. As we already know that in Q3 2021, the quarter to quarter economic growth reached only 1.55 percent (year-on-year economic growth reached 3.5 percent). Compare to quarter to quarter Q2 2021, as high as 3.51 percent (year-on-year economic growth reached 7.0 percent), the economic growth in Q3 2021 is only 50 percent of economic growth in Q4 2021. As we know, big expenditures in Q2 happened because there are financing for Covid-19 patients by the Central Government. More detail ...
      • August-2021: Tapering (Without) Tantrum
        In response to the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates to zero on March 15, 2020 and restarted its large-scale asset purchases (more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE. Since July 2021, the Fed has been buying $80 billion of Treasury securities and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) each month. As the economy rebounded in mid-2021, Fed officials began talking about slowing—or tapering—the pace of its bond purchases. In the previous tapering in 2013, it created a tantrum, which adversely affected not only the US capital market but also the global market including Indonesia. Therefore, the financial markets, most notably the emerging markets, including Indonesia, have been anticipating the likely impact of the forthcoming tapering. Will it lead to another tantrum or is this time different? More detail ...
      • June-2021: Lets Prepare For The Fed’s “Normalization”
        PEFINDO is of the view that the monetary stance of the central banks will turn tighter in line with the statement of the Fed that it will soon increase their benchmark interest rate (Fed Funds Rate – FFR) to 1% until 2023. Until June 18, 2021 (ytd), at least 34 tight monetary policies have been carried out compared to 25 times which were easing policies. Domestically, although Bank Indonesia still maintains interest rates low at 3.5% and still chooses accommodative monetary policy in line with domestic’s low inflation, but it will be very interesting to see how Bank Indonesia will respond to the policy direction taken by the Fed in next two years. More detail ...
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