• Economic Update

    • economic update
    • economicupdate
      • April-2022: Overview of World Economic Development
        Year 2021 is the year of recovery for each country in the world. After Covid-19 vaccines are found, and vaccination is implemented, the economy started to grow again. Developed countries economic growth bounced back to normal. On average 2021, Italy experienced the highest economic growth by 6.63 percent, followed by UK 6.5 percent. USA experienced 5.7 percent economic growth, followed by France 5.40 percent. Japan experienced low economic growth among developed countries, by 1.85 percent, followed by Germany, 1.80 percent. More detail ...
      • February-2022: The Impact of BI Policies and Regulations on Multifinance Sector
        PEFINDO estimates the consequence of increase of IDR Reserve Requirement Ratio, the supply of credit will be declined. Therefore, assuming that demand for funds in the finance market remain stable, the interest rate for credit of motoried vehicle will increase. In addition, the bond market yield in the multifinance market is also expected will increase, following the increase of credit market interest rate and the Federal Funds rate. The demand of finance corporation for banking funds will also decrease along with rise of bank loan interest rate. More detail ...
      • December-2021: The Development of Macroeconomics and Its Impact on Tourism Industry
        Year 2021 has been ended with positive sign of recovery. The economic growth in 2021 is expected to be 3.7 percent YoY. The inflation has been kept stable at 1.8 percent. Government Bonds yields is maintained at 6.5 percent. IDR Exchange rate is also stable, around IDR14.200-IDR14.600 per USD. That supports a positive impact on tourism industry. Given all indicators, the Indonesian economy in year 2022 will grow strong as before the pandemic. The expected economic growth in year 2022 will be between 5.0 to 5.2 percent. However, there are some challenges for the Indonesian economy ahead, especially for tourism industry. First, the on-going pandemic. The ongoing pandemic will cause the recovery of economic activities slow down. Second, the increase of price of cooking oil. This increase has led to increase of inflation that hikes the price of food and beverages, as part of tourism industry. Third, the increase of federal funds rate, as has been announced by the Federal Reserves. This increase will lead to the increase of domestic interest rate. Those three variables will challenge the Indonesian tourism industry during 2022, causing some obstacles to growth. More detail ...
      • October-2021: Macroeconomy Forecasting Analysis Q4 2021
        PEFINDO is of the view 3 scenarios regarding economic growth in Q4 2021. Those scenarios are low economic growth, moderate economic growth and high economic growth. As we already know that in Q3 2021, the quarter to quarter economic growth reached only 1.55 percent (year-on-year economic growth reached 3.5 percent). Compare to quarter to quarter Q2 2021, as high as 3.51 percent (year-on-year economic growth reached 7.0 percent), the economic growth in Q3 2021 is only 50 percent of economic growth in Q4 2021. As we know, big expenditures in Q2 happened because there are financing for Covid-19 patients by the Central Government. More detail ...
      • August-2021: Tapering (Without) Tantrum
        In response to the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates to zero on March 15, 2020 and restarted its large-scale asset purchases (more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE. Since July 2021, the Fed has been buying $80 billion of Treasury securities and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) each month. As the economy rebounded in mid-2021, Fed officials began talking about slowing—or tapering—the pace of its bond purchases. In the previous tapering in 2013, it created a tantrum, which adversely affected not only the US capital market but also the global market including Indonesia. Therefore, the financial markets, most notably the emerging markets, including Indonesia, have been anticipating the likely impact of the forthcoming tapering. Will it lead to another tantrum or is this time different? More detail ...
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