• Sectoral Review

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      • December-2020: Property Industry Prospects is Weak in The Rental Segments but Relatively Tough in Th
        We are of the view that the prospects of the property industry are mixed in the short term. We expect sluggish demand for the rental property market, while for the selling segment, especially landed houses, demand to remain quite strong. The property market has been operating on its fundamentals following the end of the commodity boom in 2014. Starting from early 2020, however, the Covid-19 pandemic brought about a contraction of economic activity, hence economic growth, resulting in the subdued demand for rental properties and to a lesser extent properties for sale. More detail ...
      • October-2020: Banking Industry
        We view the outlook for the banking industry to remain stable in the medium term, although the growth prospects and profitability may show a weakening trend in the short term period. The increasing economic risk due to the COVID-19 pandemic weakens loan growth, which may cause contraction until the end of the year. With weaker loan growth, the strongest pressure was felt in the profitability indicators; banks are suffering lower interest revenue - but having learned from past crises – keeping abundant liquidity to ensure survival during this difficult time. Furthermore, the pressure also comes from incurring higher provision costs due to asset quality deterioration and loan restructuring, as they have to absorb the cost of debtors struggling in making timely payments. More detail ...
      • August-2020: Construction Industry
        We view the outlook for construction industry will be challenging as growth prospects are weaker than we anticipated. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in reduced construction activities following the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) imposed by the government to curb the outbreak, consequently delaying project deliveries. Demand is also expected to be weaker in the short term on the back of delays and postponement of several infrastructure projects and the economic fallout caused by COVID-19. More detail ...
      • June-2020: Non-Life Insurance Industry
        We are of the view that the outlook for the non-life insurance industry is negative in the short term, given the COVID-19 pandemic impact that disrupted economic activities and significantly lowered demand for the non-life insurance industry, increasing the overall risk profile. Growth has significantly dropped to 0.4% in 2020 in comparison to 14.1% in FY19, and in our opinion, there is still a risk of further decline if the recovery process of economic activities are longer than initially projected. More detail ...
      • April-2020: Power & Energy In Indonesia
        PEFINDO is of the view that long-term energy demand in Indonesia is correlated with the growing population and economic growth. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) predicted electricity needs in the country will grow by 7% every year until 2027, driven by domestic household consumption. This affects the trade deficit, especially in relation to crude oil (including oil fuel) and the gas sector. To mitigate the energy imbalance, the government is committed to achieving 23% renewable energy in the national energy mix by 2025, in alignment with its commitment to mitigate climate change. More detail ...
      • February-2020: Slowing Growth Continues
        The finance industry reported weak financing growth of 3.7% year-on-year (YoY) to IDR 452.2 trillion in 2019, lower than the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the last four years of 3.9%. This percentage is also lower compared to the previous year, which was 5.2% YoY. More detail ...
      • December-2019: Indonesia’s Petrochemical Industry
        We are of the view that the outlook for the petrochemical industry is stable. Prospects for demand growth are positive in the medium term, although there are short-term risks from the slowdown in the production of plastic and rubber-based goods. Even low oil prices allow producers to maintain a stable level of profit. From the supply side, Indonesia needs new investment to reduce import dependency, especially for aromatic products. More detail ...
      • October-2019: The Banking Industry
        We are of the view that the banking outlook is relatively stable in the medium term. This is supported by relatively stable profitability, maintained liquidity and strong capital. We expect liquidity conditions to start loosening, along with accommodative monetary policies adopted by Bank Indonesia. This is reflected by a decrease in the loan to deposit ratio and a decrease in short-term interest rates on the interbank market. More detail ...
      • August-2019: Base Metal Industry
        We see downward pressure on base metal prices in the short term in line with the prospect of a slowdown in the global economy, the tension from the trade war, and the fundamental conditions of supply and demand. The outlook for the domestic industry is highly exposed to global demand, because most of the output produced is shipped overseas as domestic absorption is limited. More detail ...
      • June-2019: Non-Life Insurance Industry
        We see the outlook of the non-life insurance industry as relatively stable. We expect growth this year to be in line with the 10% target, even though challenges remain in a number of segments. More detail ...
      • April-2019: Food & Beverage Industry
        We are of the view that the food and beverage industry will be stable in the short term. We are also of the view that growth will be prospective in the short term and higher than Indonesia's economic growth, supported by stable inflation, a level of confidence and maintained purchasing power. The per capita expenditure for packaged food and beverage products also continues to grow, driven by an increasingly urban society and changes in consumption patterns among the Indonesian people. More detail ...
      • February-2019: Multifinance Industry
        We are of the view that the growth outlook for the multifinance financing industry is still challenging. Funding is becoming tighter as interest rates increase, adding to the challenge from the disruption by financial technology companies (fintech). More detail ...
      • December-2018: Property Industry
        We are of the view that the demand prospects of the property industry will be weak in the short-term, but we also see supply continuing to grow, creating excess in the market, especially in the office and retail spaces. Higher interest rates and lower affordability will limit demand recovery as mortgages become more expensive. The shift to digital platforms could also disrupt businesses, such as retail, with conventional stores beginning to relocate to online spaces. More detail ...
      • October-2018: The Banking Industry
        We are of the view that the outlook for the banking industry is relatively stable in the medium term. Growth prospects are likely to be moderate, in line with increasing risk pressure stemming from rising interest rates and rupiah depreciation. Banking liquidity is likely to be relatively moderate, as funding from deposits offsets credit growth in line with banking efforts to raise deposit rates. Banking capital has remained strong, with the capital adequacy ratio far above regulatory requirements. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
      • August-2018: Continuity Of Infrastructure Projects Creates Market Growth
        We are of the view that the construction industry will see stable growth in the medium term. Continuous infrastructure development will sustain demand for construction services, but demand from the property sector will remain sluggish in line with more expensive borrowing costs. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
      • June-2018: Downward slope of financing growth since July 2018
        The multifinance industry (MFI) has experienced slower growth, largely due to weaker demand for automotive financing. Some 59% of MFI financing receivables comes from the multipurpose financing sector, which mainly consists of automotive financing. The sector’s growth rate has been declining since mid-2017, along with low multipurpose financing growth. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
      • April-2018: Wireless Telecommunications: Strengthening The Business Model Of Data-Driven Services
        PEFINDO is of the view that the wireless telecommunications industry will be stable in the medium term. We expect data-driven services to be the key driver, supported by a favorable environment including increasing smartphone penetration, improved affordability of higher data plans, and emerging mobile app-based services. Over the longer term, however, we expect mobile data and over-the-top (OTT) content services to cannibalize legacy voice and short message service (SMS) services. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
      • February-2018: General Insurance
        We are of the view that prospects for general insurance and reinsurance business will still be quite challenging this year. Sluggish performance in the core segments will consideraby affect the overall growth performance of industry in the short-term. On other side, pressure on the industry's profitabilty is likely to continue in this year. Low growth will drive intense competition in the industry, impacting on the stiffer price competition among players. As a result, underwriting result should grow at low pace. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
      • December-2017: Banking Industry
        Gradually growing healthier We expect Indonesia's banking industry to remain stable. We project loan growth to slightly increase to 11%-13% in 2018, in line with improved domestic economic trends based our forecast. We expect domestic consumption to improve, which would boost activities in related sectors such manufacturing and trade. Similarly, the government’s massive infrastructure program is expected to drive loan demand from the construction sector. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
      • October 2017: Transportation Industry Transportation Sector Growth
        We are of the view that the transportation sector in Indonesia will grow higher than overall economic growth. Improved economic growth is expected to increase the activities of passenger services, and logistics transportation activities are also expected to increase along with better business and infrastructure improvements. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
      • August-2017: Non-Life Insurance Industry
        We project moderate growth for the general insurance industry in Indonesia in the near and medium term. The growth of gross written premiums (GWP) from dominant business classes such as motor vehicles and property, combined at -0.4% year-on-year (YoY) growth in 1Q2017, remained weak in the first half of 2017, and the potential growth will be quite limited in the second half of the year due to soft auto and property loan expansion. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
      • June 2017: Indonesia Toll Road Industry
        We view the outlook for Indonesia’s toll road industry as stable. Growth remains likely in line with the government’s target of 1,000 kilometers (km) of toll roads in 2019 to ¬improve domestic logistics costs and accommodate the higher number of cars on the roads. As of March 31, 2017, Indonesia’s total toll road length was 989 km. The government has been working to improve the existing regulatory framework, although some obstacles remain and several projects still face land acquisition constraints. The bailout of land acquisition is expected to accelerate the acquisition process of the land so as to minimize the risk of soaring expenditure for project development. The latest obstacle is related to investment. more ... For further information please register on our website. More detail ...
      • April 2017: Multifinance Industry Update 2016
        OJK noted that the combined asset of multi-finance companies operating in Indonesia rose to IDR442.7 trillion in 2016 from IDR425.7 trillion in 2015 or grew by 4% year-on-year (yoy) in 2016. Meanwhile, combined liabilities and equity of multifinance companies reached IDR339.3 trillion and IDR103.1 trillion or grew by 4% (yoy),3% (yoy) respectively. The improvement of asset growth was due to the recovery of financing activity, moved from -0.8 % (yoy) in 2015 to 6.2% (yoy) in 2016. The increase of financing growth continued in January 2017 reached 6.7% (yoy). More detail ...
      • February 2017 : Crude Palm Oil Industry
        PEFINDO is of the view that the palm oil industry has stable prospects ahead. We expect a limited possibility of palm oil prices falling sharply in line with an improved supply-demand balance compared to last year. We expect demand from key countries, particularly Indonesia and India, to remain strong. In complying with requirements for a higher percentage of blending, we believe the biodiesel industry will consume more crude palm oil (CPO) as feedstock to drive output. In India, since edible oil consumption is mostly supplied by palm oil, we also expect consumption to continue to grow, particularly with the recent stock depletion. Nevertheless, we are also of the view that the percentage increase of any price hikes will likely be limited. Supply conditions are expected to run at historic levels after recovering from El Niño. On the other hand, demand in Europe and China remain challenged, where CPO competes fiercely with substitute products. We expect the combination of relatively stable prices and increased production to support plantation companies in performing better than last year, when price increases were unable to offset the decline in sales due to production pressures and tougher competition. More detail ...
      • December 2016 : Banking Industry
        We are of the view that the outlook of Indonesian banking industry is stable in short and medium term. The capacity of the industry to absorb potential risk is supported by its strong capitalization profile, reflected by high capital adequacy ratio. At the same time banks were capable to maintain profitability despite credit growth declining by maintaining the net interest margin, although pressurized by tightening competition. However, the banking industry will continuously be challenged by mild credit growth recovery due to slower economic growth and tight liquidity situation. In the long term perspective, we view the banking industry could improve its performance by expanding its coverage, both through conventional and digital channels, to attract potential customers. At the same time, aggressive government infrastructure project development could also boost credit growth. More detail ...
      • October 2016 : Mining Sector (Coal, Oil & Gas)
        We are of the view that the outlook for Indonesia’s mining sector (coal, oil and gas) is negative in the short to medium term. Global oil and gas prices will remain low with limited improvement until the end of 2016 because of oversupply, mostly from Iranian oil production. The decline of China’s economic growth has also reduced demand for oil and gas in the medium to long term. Moreover, weak economic growth in the Eurozone after Brexit will add pressure for oil and gas prices to recover, as does the increase in US oil and gas. In Indonesia, the decline of global oil and gas prices has reduced the incentive for upstream producers to conduct exploration activities to increase reserves, instead trying to increase production volume to partially offset the price decline and pursue cost efficiency efforts to improve profitability. Government incentives are needed to help upstream producers increase production, given declining national oil lifting due to aging wells. More detail ...
      • August 2016 : General Insurance Industry 2016
        We are of the view that growth of general insurance industry in Indonesia as moderate in the near term for several reasons. The growth of gross written premium (GWP) from dominant business classes such as motor vehicle and property remained weak in the first half of 2016 and the potential growth will be quite limited in the second half of 2016. The slow adjustment of bank's lending rate amid the decline of benchmark rate in the first half 2016 has constrained the credit expansion for motor vehicles and property and finally affected gross premimum written from those segments. We expect the positive effect of rate declining policy will be transmitted into the credit expansion of those two segments in the medium term and long term. More detail ...
      • June 2016 : Food and Beverage Industry 2016
        PEFINDO views the outlook of the food and beverage (FNB) industry in Indonesia as stable in the near to medium term, supported by the stable demand of FNB products, the large population dominated by productive age (around 67.3% of population in 2015), increasing middle income segment to 141 million in 2020 from 74 million in 2012, and growing number of urban population. However, the industry faces the challenges of increasing wages and electricity tariffs, volatile raw material and packaging material prices, and rupiah depreciation for imported raw material. More detail ...
      • April 2016 : Multi Finance Performance Overview for 2015
        Decline in Asset and Financing Growth in 2015. PEFINDO is of the view that the lack of demand due to high interest rates, low commodity prices, and lower GDP growth are factors that affected the performance of the multi-finance industry (MFI) in 2015. On the supply side, high interest rates in 2015 designed to keep the rupiah from further depreciation also raised the cost of funds for multi-finance companies and led to an increase asset and liabilities growth over the past four years. At the end of 2015, total assets only increased by 1.3% year-on-year (YoY) to IDR425.7 trillion in December 2015 from IDR420.4 trillion in 2014. This is much lower than in 2014, when assets increased by 5.0% from 2013. More detail ...
      • August 2015 : Non-Life Insurance Industry
        We believe the current economic slowdown may constrain the growth the general insurance industry. The presence of the National Health Insurance program is a major challenge for insurers. Overall, gross premiums in 2015 are projected to grow 9.0%-12.0%, down from 17.9% in 2014. Nevertheless, the medium to long-term prospects for the general insurance industry have potential given the low penetration rate, which was below 1% as of 2014. Among the key drivers for medium-long term growth are improved accessibility through the micro-insurance program, the increasing middle class, and the implementation of infrastructure projects as the potential target markets. Insurance companies are also adopting and harnessing technological advances to deepen market coverage. Other key drivers are packaging investment-based insurance products, and life insurance. More detail ...
      • June 2015 : The Energy Infrastructure Industry
        We view the prospects of energy infrastructure in Indonesia as remaining solid. We anticipate substantial projects in this sector in the year ahead, which are necessary to tackle the current bottlenecks and improve the supply and accessibility of energy. Given the shift in the domestic energy mix, with a higher percentage for the non-oil aspect, we believe that the projects under construction in several segments, including gas and renewable energy, will be increasingly important. Recently, weak energy prices saw a cheaper fuel price providing catalyst for higher demand, supporting better profitability for players in certain segments. More detail ...
      • April 2015 : The Multifinance Industry
        We believe the multifinance industry will face moderate growth this year due to several factors. A sales price hike and the higher cost of borrowing may negatively affect automotive sales. Liquidity is still a concern for most finance companies and thus constrains their expansion. Commodity prices will remain under pressure due to the current slowdown of China's economy and low oil prices. More detail ...
      • February 2015 : The Construction Industry
        PEFINDO views the construction industry as remaining stable. Given the challenging issues in 2014, the market still showed solid demand. Construction value, which was absorbed, reached IDR360.2 trillion at October 22, 2014, representing 97.9% of its value in 2013, based on data from the Information System for Investment and Construction Resources. More detail ...
      • September 2014 : Fertilizer
        Demand prospects in the domestic fertilizer market remain bright. A rising population sees a greater need for food, triggering the domestic agriculture sector to increase production, thus requiring more intensive fertilizer support. Currently, paddy, corn, and palm oil are the key commodities for fertilizer use in Indonesia. More detail ...
      • July 2014 : Non Life Insurance
        We believe that the growth performance of the general insurance business remains solid. We consider that a number of factors, such as the prospect of decelerating economic growth, national health insurance, and infrastructure budget savings will potentially limit the gains in premiums of some players. Thus, we foresee premium growth in 2014 will be more moderate, in the range of 13-19%. More detail ...
      • May 2014 : Retail
        PEFINDO believes that the prospect of modern retail stores industry, which includes minimarket/convenience store, supermarket, hypermarket, and department store businesses, is stable. In the short term, growth of modern retail sales is expected to be relatively moderate, as development of key indicators in the retail business remains unfavorable. Industry operational costs in 2013 surged sharply following increases in wage and other primary cost components. However, we observed that retailers remain capable of maintaining margin, therefore still generating strong growth of net profit. More detail ...
      • March 2014 : Multifinance Industry
        The great challenges face the growth prospects of the multifinance industry, as it has experienced a decline over the last two years. Aside from the government regulation increasing the size of required down payments, the business environment in general is moving in an unfavorable direction. Increased fuel prices, high inflation and interest rates, rising unemployment and low commodity prices can all hamper the growth of demand, disrupting new financing bookings. Automotive sales are relatively moderate, while the heavy machinery market saw a decline in sales last year.The great challenges face the growth prospects of the multifinance industry, as it has experienced a decline over the last two years. Aside from the government regulation increasing the size of required down payments, the business environment in general is moving in an unfavorable direction. Increased fuel prices, high inflation and interest rates, rising unemployment and low commodity prices can all hamper the growth of demand, disrupting new financing bookings. Automotive sales are relatively moderate, while the heavy machinery market saw a decline in sales last year. More detail ...
      • November 2013 : Banking
        PEFINDO notes that there are several obstacles that need to be properly managed by the banking industry in the short term. Variables causing the business environment to be increasingly difficult include high inflation, rupiah depreciation, deceleration of output growth in several sectors, increased energy costs, and commodity prices holding at low level, as well as the Central Bank’s tightening of monetary policy by increasing interest rates and issuing a number of stricter policies. These conditions are expected to encourage deceleration in credit distribution, credit quality disruption, and decreased banking revenue. More detail ...
      • September 2013 : The Nickel and Tin Industry
        It is PEFINDO’s assessment that the nickel and tin industry faces struggling times ahead. Prices continued to decline in the first five months of 2013, and any prospect of improvement is being deterred by the slow recovery and development of the global economy, which will affect consumption from several of the world’s large consumers such as China, the United States and the European Union. Fundamentally, a tightening of supply will serve a pivotal role in improving prices in the international market. More detail ...
      • July 2013 : General Insurance Industry - Stable Several Risks to Note
        PEFINDO believes that the risk profile of the general insurance industry remains stable with promising prospects in long-term. Gross premium growth is a little more moderate than previously as newly acquired premiums declined in the main sector, which is motor vehicles. Meanwhile, gross claims increased relatively putting no pressure on profitability as they are mostly covered by reinsurance. Underwriting results may grow significantly, covering the declining contribution from investment results within a low interest rate environment. More detail ...
      • May 2013 : Growth Momentum of Property Industry Remain Significant
        PEFINDO is of the view that Indonesia’s property industry is growing significantly thanks to a conducive domestic environment, particularly due to solid economic fundamentals and the country’s demographic profile. Strong demand continues to encourage price increases and motivate the industry players to continually expand. More detail ...
      • March 2013 : Tighter Regulation Hampers Multifinance Industry’s Performance in 2013
        The growth of the multifinance industry in 2012 slowed down due to disruptions in the motorcycle and heavy machinery financing markets. Motorcycle financing suffered from the government’s issuance of stricter regulations on down payment requirements, while heavy machinery financing was affected by the mining industry’s troubles. The higher down payment requirement, however, had a small effect on the car financing market. More detail ...
      • January 2013 : Instant Noodle Industry
        Instant Noodle Industry Faces Higher Operating Cost Pressures in 2013 PEFINDO sees the instant noodle industry facing greater challenges in 2013 compared to the past year as a result of the Indonesian government’s decisions to raise the electricity tariff and minimum regional wages, resulting in a higher risk profile. These two moves pushed up manufacturers’ operational costs, which in turn squeezed their profitability margins. At the same time, they are also faced with the continued need to manage the weakness of the export market, which has shown little signs of getting better. More detail ...
      • October 2012 : Securities Industry - Managing Challenges More Prudently in 2013
        Going into 2013, we believe that Indonesia’s securities industry will remain volatile due to capital market pressures. With a large amount of stock under foreign ownership — about 40% to 45% — the industry remains vulnerable to the ongoing global economic turmoil. Although the fundamentals of the Indonesian economy remain relatively strong, with an annual economic growth rate of 6.3% to 6.4%, the economic crisis in Europe and the United States caused a sharp decline in the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG – Indeks harga Saham Gabungan) in June 2012. This reflects the industry’s need to continually improve the stability of its income and capitalization. More detail ...
      • August 2012 : Indonesian Banking Industry
        PEFINDO views that Indonesian Banking remains strong, as reflected by strong growth rate, profitability level, strong financing capacity, and maintained good asset qualities. However, this assessment is constrained by the higher risk of exchange rates, banking foreign exchange liquidity which tends to grow tighter, and the uncertainty of global economy recovery. Loan growth remains strong due to positive economic conditions, and supported by lower interest rate climate. Another positive aspect is the strong growth of banking loan portfolio that is distributed to productive business sector. We expect that these will accelerate Indonesian economic growth further. More detail ...
      • April 2012 : Multi-finance Industry In Indonesia
        PEFINDO views that the performance of Multi-finance industry remained strong. This is reflected in the growth of financing receivables and the development of funding source that more diversified. The constantly growing industry profit indicates that the industry is still profitable albeit with a slow growth, especially since several companies started to adopt SFAS 50/55. In the meantime, we have estimated that the prospect of Multi-finance industry up until the end of year 2012 will remain positive although it will not be as well as year 2011. This is due to the negative sentiment related to the government’s fuel policy. More detail ...
      • February 2012 : Indonesia Construction Industry
        PEFINDO assesses that the prospect of construction industry in Indonesia holds a promising future. This optimism is supported by the high level of government infrastruture and private sector construction spending in line with macroeconomy that still good relatively. Until 2011H1, most of the realized projects were carried out by private companies. The contract amount until the end of 2011 was estimated to reach IDR199.32 trillion. More detail ...
      • October 2011 : Life Insurance Industry overview
        PEFINDO views that Indonesia life insurance industry performance is strong with stable outlook. This assessment is based on the industry’s sustainable growth, available capital and technical reserve that continue to increase, as well as higher profitability after the global crisis in 2008. Furthermore, the growth trend of life insurance premium has nearly reached the stage prior to the 2008 crisis. In the meantime, the industry also shows strong capitalization levels with high Risk Based Capital (RBC) ratio at average of 512.8%, much higher than the minimum requirement of 120%. More detail ...
      • July 2011 : Banking Industry
        PEFINDO views that Indonesia banking industry current condition is very strong. This review is based on the industry’s positive and stable growth, well-managed assets quality, controlled liquidity, strong capital, and improved certain profitability indicators. These achievements are related with Indonesia’s conducive political and economics conditions in 2010 including the country’s improvement in investment climate, growth in the real sector, strong domestic demand, and stable BI rate at 6.5%. The European crisis does not significantly affect the performance of Indonesia’s banking industry in 2010. More detail ...
      • January 2011 : CPO Industry
        The positive prospect of oil palm industry in Indonesia encourages the development and continued growth of Crude Palm Oil industry. Currently, Indonesia is the highest producer of CPO in the world although in the 1980s that position was held by Malaysia. From the 1980s until now, Indonesia’s plantation area is much larger than that of Malaysia. Furthermore, establishment of CPO factories was conducted with the aim to increase production level. As a result, the CPO production level has been going up significantly. More detail ...
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