• Sectoral Review

    • sectoral review
    • sectoral review
      • February-2023: Lower Financing Growth Amid High Interest Rate Environment
        PEFINDO views the outlook for the multi-finance company industry as stable in the near to medium term, supported by the national economic recovery stimulating the industry's growth going forward, especially after the Government lifted the Restriction on Community Activities (PPKM) at the end of December 2022. In addition, we view that the enactment of the second booster vaccine will continue to keep the Covid positive case rate at a manageable level. However, we view the trend of rising interest rates to become the main challenge, and accordingly we expect the multi-finance companies’ net service assets growth will be lower this year. With the majority of industry's funding coming from external including banks and debt issuances, we view industry will experience pressure from the rising cost of funds, which will also impact the growth of financing portfolios. As of December 2022, net service assets were recorded at IDR581.8 trillion or grew 16.4% YoY compared to 2021 receivables of IDR500,0 trillion. Going forward, we expect growth to be lower at 7%-9%. In terms of contribution, automotive financing will remain the main contributor of 60%-70% of total industry receivables. In terms of financial performance, high cost of funds may put additional pressure to multi-finance companies' net interest margin. In addition, we expect provision expenses to be stable with no potential substantial increment compared to the pandemic period. More detail ...
      • December-2022: Stable Outlook for Domestic Pulp and Paper Industry
        PEFINDO is of the view that the outlook of the pulp and paper industry in Indonesia is stable with the risk profile of moderately high. Our view is attributable to relatively strong demand of pulp and paper products in the near to medium term, while additional supply will come into effect in the medium term. The demand is buoyed by the growing population and the change of lifestyle to online shopping with the rise of food and goods delivery, albeit with fears of global recession that may decelerate the global demand growth. More detail ...
      • October-2022: General Insurance Outlook: Gradual Growth amid Economic Recovery after Pandemic
        PEFINDO is of the view that the outlook of general insurance industry is stable in the near to medium term, highlighted by the improvement of business environment amid the recovering economic after pandemic, as premiums and claims gradually return to normal levels. As of June 30, 2022 (1H2022), the gross premium grew by 20.0% YoY (year on year), at IDR46.0 trillion in 1H2022 from IDR38.4 trillion in 1H2021, which mostly came from property, motor vehicle and credit insurance segments, the three largest contributors. In line with growing premiums, gross claims have also increased to IDR17.8 trillion from IDR13.1 trillion at the same period or growing by 35.7%, a higher rate than that of premiums but from a much lower base, mainly derived from credit insurance, property, and health insurance segments. More detail ...
      • August-2022: Indonesia Packaged Food and Beverage Industry
        PEFINDO is of the view that the packaged food and beverage (F&B) industry in Indonesia will remain stable in the near to medium term, although some challenges will limit the sector growth. We view the risk profile of the packaged food and beverage industry as low on the rationale of stable growth and strong domestic demand due to basic needs, and large population base, especially the productive age with large spending potential. Per capita spending on food and beverages grew by 10.0% in the past nine years from IDR92,254 per month in 2013 to IDR197,682 per month in 2021. These characteristics provide an enormous opportunity for the F&B business to grow in the long term. More detail ...
      • June-2022: Strengthening Resilience Amid High Volatility
        We view that the bond market will remain volatile in the near future. The US central bank is likely to maintain its aggressive monetary policy. And central banks in developed countries also took a similar stance in line with the inflation rate, which was far above the target. And finally, it creates a wave of tighter monetary around the world to avoid pressures from capital outflows, which can worsen exchange rates and economic stability. More detail ...
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