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• August-2023: Banking Outlook in 2023: Steady Going Into Election Cycle
  The banking growth in 2023 has been relatively even across all Commercial Banks Group of Core Capital (Kelompok Bank berdasarkan Modal Inti or KBMI), unlike last year which was driven mainly by KBMI-4 banks. Lower-tier banks have been able to post more encouraging growth, attributed to a more stable business environment after the pandemic. More detail ...
• June-2023: Indonesia Property Outlook
  PEFINDO is of the view that the property industry’s risk profile in Indonesia is moderate with a stable outlook over the next 12-18 months. As the country’s economy recovers from the pandemic, property developers are regaining momentum and implementing strategies to boost marketing sales and execute plans that were previously delayed due to the pandemic. However, there are several challenges that property developers will face, such as a higher interest rate environment and the upcoming political year. From the buyer’s side, higher interest rates may result in weakening demand and purchasing power as it will increase the cost of buying property. More detail ...
• April-2023: Stable Outlook for Palm Oil in 2023
  PEFINDO views the outlook for the crude palm oil (CPO) industry to remain stable in the near to medium term, driven by its broad product applications particularly related to fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) as well as strong domestic demand to meet the B35 biodiesel program. CPO price is projected will be normalized to around RM3,800-4,000/ton after reaching its peak of around RM8,000/ton in March 2022, driven by increasing production and the potential recession in several exporting countries. More detail ...
• February-2023: Lower Financing Growth Amid High Interest Rate Environment
  PEFINDO views the outlook for the multi-finance company industry as stable in the near to medium term, supported by the national economic recovery stimulating the industry's growth going forward, especially after the Government lifted the Restriction on Community Activities (PPKM) at the end of December 2022. In addition, we view that the enactment of the second booster vaccine will continue to keep the Covid positive case rate at a manageable level. However, we view the trend of rising interest rates to become the main challenge, and accordingly we expect the multi-finance companies’ net service assets growth will be lower this year. With the majority of industry's funding coming from external including banks and debt issuances, we view industry will experience pressure from the rising cost of funds, which will also impact the growth of financing portfolios. As of December 2022, net service assets were recorded at IDR581.8 trillion or grew 16.4% YoY compared to 2021 receivables of IDR500,0 trillion. Going forward, we expect growth to be lower at 7%-9%. In terms of contribution, automotive financing will remain the main contributor of 60%-70% of total industry receivables. In terms of financial performance, high cost of funds may put additional pressure to multi-finance companies' net interest margin. In addition, we expect provision expenses to be stable with no potential substantial increment compared to the pandemic period. More detail ...
• December-2022: Stable Outlook for Domestic Pulp and Paper Industry
  PEFINDO is of the view that the outlook of the pulp and paper industry in Indonesia is stable with the risk profile of moderately high. Our view is attributable to relatively strong demand of pulp and paper products in the near to medium term, while additional supply will come into effect in the medium term. The demand is buoyed by the growing population and the change of lifestyle to online shopping with the rise of food and goods delivery, albeit with fears of global recession that may decelerate the global demand growth. More detail ...
• October-2022: General Insurance Outlook: Gradual Growth amid Economic Recovery after Pandemic
  PEFINDO is of the view that the outlook of general insurance industry is stable in the near to medium term, highlighted by the improvement of business environment amid the recovering economic after pandemic, as premiums and claims gradually return to normal levels. As of June 30, 2022 (1H2022), the gross premium grew by 20.0% YoY (year on year), at IDR46.0 trillion in 1H2022 from IDR38.4 trillion in 1H2021, which mostly came from property, motor vehicle and credit insurance segments, the three largest contributors. In line with growing premiums, gross claims have also increased to IDR17.8 trillion from IDR13.1 trillion at the same period or growing by 35.7%, a higher rate than that of premiums but from a much lower base, mainly derived from credit insurance, property, and health insurance segments. More detail ...
• August-2022: Indonesia Packaged Food and Beverage Industry
  PEFINDO is of the view that the packaged food and beverage (F&B) industry in Indonesia will remain stable in the near to medium term, although some challenges will limit the sector growth. We view the risk profile of the packaged food and beverage industry as low on the rationale of stable growth and strong domestic demand due to basic needs, and large population base, especially the productive age with large spending potential. Per capita spending on food and beverages grew by 10.0% in the past nine years from IDR92,254 per month in 2013 to IDR197,682 per month in 2021. These characteristics provide an enormous opportunity for the F&B business to grow in the long term. More detail ...
• June-2022: Strengthening Resilience Amid High Volatility
  We view that the bond market will remain volatile in the near future. The US central bank is likely to maintain its aggressive monetary policy. And central banks in developed countries also took a similar stance in line with the inflation rate, which was far above the target. And finally, it creates a wave of tighter monetary around the world to avoid pressures from capital outflows, which can worsen exchange rates and economic stability. More detail ...
• April-2022: Indonesian Transportation Infrastructure
  We are of the view that the outlook for transportation infrastructure will remain stable, though we believe that some subsectors will continue to operate at a much challenging operating environment compared to the pre-pandemic levels. It is no doubt that transportation infrastructure such as toll roads, railways, and airport, is and always will remain critical to the well-functioning of economic activities as it ensures everyday mobility of people as well as production and distribution of goods. Therefore, having a quality infrastructure is fundamental to a country’s economy and its future competitiveness. However, the Covid-19 pandemic has severely affected the demand for transportation infrastructure operators because of the government’s measures, not only domestically but also worldwide, to contain the pandemic through mobility restrictions and social distancing measures. More detail ...
• February-2022: Outlook in 2022: Cautious Growth Along with The Economic Recovery Trajectory
  We view the outlook for the multifinance industry to remain stable over the short and medium-term, highlighted by the expectation of positive growth of 2% - 3% in 2022, continuing an improving growth trend in financing in spite of the challenging environment. As of 2021, the industry’s net service assets (NSA) were recorded at IDR500.0 trillion, contracting by 1.0% YoY compared to IDR504.9 trillion as of 2020. In spite of the contraction, we expect the industry’s NSA to recover in 2022 as aligned with the economic recovery, as reflected in the increasing NSA of IDR506.7 trillion as of 1M2022, a positive growth of 1.2% YoY compared to IDR500.6 trillion as of 1M2021. However, the high portion of restructured financing receivables is still a hindrance to future business expansion, as recorded at IDR219.0 trillion as of 2021 (44% of total NSA), still slightly increasing from IDR214.1 trillion in 2020 (42.7%) in spite of flattening curve. Such condition may also put additional pressure on asset quality. More detail ...
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• August-2023: Domestic Economy Remain Solid Amidst Global Uncertainty That Still High
  The global economy is expected to improve in its development, although it is still below historical levels. Global commodity prices are continuing to normalize, although they have been pushed up slightly due to rising plantation commodity prices due to the El Nino phenomenon which has triggered prolonged drought in various major exporting countries. This provides support for inflation which continues in a downward path in various countries in line with the trend of tightening monetary policy which continues until this August. More detail ...
• June-2023: Indonesia’s Economy Still Solid Amid Global Economic Divergence Haunted By Geopolitical R
  Until the end of the 1st semester of 2023, the global economy is seen experiencing a divergence in recovery between developed countries which are slowing down, and developing countries which are experiencing accelerated growth. Pressure from the commodity price side continues to ease, but inflation tends to be difficult to reduce in line with core inflation conditions which are still high due to tight employment conditions in various countries. This then prompted various central banks to continue their tightening cycle after being paused at the beginning of the second quarter. The continued tightening of various countries, especially developed countries, has triggered a weakening of the exchange rate and a correction in the stock market due to capital outflows from developing countries. More detail ...
• April-2023: Indonesia’s Economy is Able to Perform Solidly and Continue Growing with Confidence Amid
  The global economy is still overshadowed by uncertainty in line with high geopolitical tensions and shocks that have occurred in the financial sector. However, in line with the disinflationary process that has started due to the normalization of commodity prices and efforts to tighten monetary policies by various central banks, global economic performance is still showing a good trend, and various countries are able to grow above expectations. In contrast to the conditions surrounding the global economy, the domestic economy was able to record very good economic growth and above estimates in line with the ongoing recovery in various sectors as well as support from fiscal-monetary policies that were able to maintain resilience and conditions of continuous improvement. The prospects for the domestic economy also look very good as various leading indicators are showing optimism and continuing good results. Nonetheless, good economic conditions are not immediately answered by conditions in the issuance of corporate debt securities, which until the first 4 months of 2023 still show a slowdown along with high-interest rates. More detail ...
• February-2023: The Economy in Early 2023: The Promise of a Recovery But Need to Remain Vigilant
  The world economy in 2023 is expected to grow higher than previous estimates in line with inflation, which has reached a turning point in several countries, and monetary policy tightening, which has begun to slow down. Nonetheless, the risk of monetary policy tightening that was pursued so high throughout 2022 requires continued vigilance for the risks, especially the impact on corporate performance in various parts of the world. From domestic development, economic conditions that keep showing good performance continue to provide their own optimism. The central bank has kept interest rates on hold since February 2023 as inflation is expected to continue to slow and decline. This then gives a positive sentiment even though the risks from the policies posed also need to be watched out for. The condition of the national macro economy, which continues to show good performance as reflected in the latest leading indicators, is also expected to be followed by the company's need for funding to expand in order to respond to the increase in demand. This then encourages the issuance of bonds to grow in the first two months of 2023 when compared to the first two months of the previous year. More detail ...
• December-2022: Indonesia Economic Outlook 2023: Maintaining Resilience Amid High Uncertainty
  The war between Russia and Ukraine has brought uncertainty back to levels above the average for the past 22 years. Increased uncertainty was caused by soaring commodity prices and resulted in rising inflation in all countries in the world. This then made central banks in various countries, including developed countries, increase their interest rates to tame the rising inflation. However, this policy had an impact on weakening global economic growth which has occurred since the second semester and is expected to continue in 2023. Nonetheless, the Indonesian economy, which until the third quarter of 2022 managed to achieve a solid economic recovery with growth of 5.7%, is expected to continue to recover along with various leading indicators which are still showing good performance. Throughout 2022, Indonesia become one of the countries that have succeeded in suppressing inflation due to an optimal mix of monetary and fiscal policies, so that the soaring price that occurs at the global level are not fully transmitted to the domestic economy. In 2023, PEFINDO projects that the Indonesian economy will be able to grow in the range of 4.9% - 5.2% supported by solid consumption, and the windfall effect of rising commodity prices will still leave opportunities that can be exploited to boost exports. With the global economic downturn that is expected to give a minimum impact on the domestic economy, business activities are predicted to continue the positive trend and encourage the issuance of corporate debt securities which are expected to reach IDR144.24 – 158.27 trillion. Challenges such as interest rates and inflation which remain high, the value of bonds with a lower maturity in 2023, and the wait-and-see condition that might occur in line with conditions leading up to the elections, still overshadow the Indonesian debt market in 2023. However, the opportunities that emerged from the maintained macroeconomic conditions and the still attractive Indonesian bond market, could also encourage the issuance of bonds to be higher in 2023. More detail ...
• October-2022: Indonesia’s Economy Records Impressive Achievements Amid a Slowing Global Economy and
  The global economy is overshadowed by a divergent recovery and slower economic growth projections up to 2023. It is triggered by the high inflation in various countries that lead the central banks to raise their interest rates. Amid those situations, Indonesia can still record impressive economic growth in Q3-2022 with the condition of inflation that is still manageable and lowers unemployment. Leading indicators for the real sector show good prospects and continue to strengthen. These conditions indicate that economic recovery will continue. More detail ...
• August-2022: Indonesia Recovery Continues But Facing The Challenge of Increasing Global Commodity P
  In Q2-2022, the global economy is still faced with various uncertainties that pressure economic recovery. In a report released in July, the IMF revised its projection for global economic growth of 0.4% from the previous 3.6% to only 3.2%. Various uncertainties that occur every day in the world and pose a downside risk include the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict which then has an impact on global supply chain disruptions, rising energy and food prices, as well as the normalization of monetary policy in various countries triggered by rising inflation. More detail ...
• June-2022: While Global May Experience "W" Economic Recovery what About Indonesia?
  We view that the domestic economic recovery remains on track. We maintain our forecast for economic growth in the 5.11% - 5.46% range for FY2022, as we projected earlier in the year. Stronger consumption and investment will be supported by prudent monetary policy, accommodating external pressures while supporting the domestic recovery. However, we look at risk factors for the domestic economy. Pressure on the rupiah may remain due to the interest rate disparity and a lower trade balance surplus going forward. In addition, high energy prices can increase production costs, spur inflation and weaken household purchasing power. And these conditions affect the prospects for business profitability - as well as investment - and household demand for goods and services. More detail ...
• April-2022: Overview of World Economic Development
  Year 2021 is the year of recovery for each country in the world. After Covid-19 vaccines are found, and vaccination is implemented, the economy started to grow again. Developed countries economic growth bounced back to normal. On average 2021, Italy experienced the highest economic growth by 6.63 percent, followed by UK 6.5 percent. USA experienced 5.7 percent economic growth, followed by France 5.40 percent. Japan experienced low economic growth among developed countries, by 1.85 percent, followed by Germany, 1.80 percent. More detail ...
• February-2022: The Impact of BI Policies and Regulations on Multifinance Sector
  PEFINDO estimates the consequence of increase of IDR Reserve Requirement Ratio, the supply of credit will be declined. Therefore, assuming that demand for funds in the finance market remain stable, the interest rate for credit of motoried vehicle will increase. In addition, the bond market yield in the multifinance market is also expected will increase, following the increase of credit market interest rate and the Federal Funds rate. The demand of finance corporation for banking funds will also decrease along with rise of bank loan interest rate. More detail ...
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• August-2023: Preparing The Market As The Interest Rate Hike Cycle In Developing Countries Near Its End
  We still maintain our view on the domestic debt market. Still, with an additional note, the challenges ahead will be greater than in the previous few months. We expect the domestic market to maintain its positive performance in the next two months, supported by resilient domestic demand and lower supply. The inflation trend will remain within Bank Indonesia's target range, favorable due to its impact on future interest rate expectations and related monetary policy and, therefore, on pricing in the market. Supply will decrease, apart from approaching the end of the budget period, due to cuts in budget financing targets through debt securities. Meanwhile, domestic demand remains stable, with a solid increase in retail investors, which will strengthen strong domestic fundamentals. More detail ...
• June-2023: Keeping The Optimism to Perform Solidly as The Interest Rate Hike Cycle Nears its End
  We believe solidity in the bond market will continue until the end of the year. The solid domestic demand base is supported by attractive pricing as it offers higher real fixed returns and is more secure in the current uncertain and high-interest environment. In addition, the spread is relatively high compared to several other developing countries, supported by a stable sovereign rating and fiscal improvements toward a more sustainable direction. So, in our opinion, the domestic market remains on the global investor target radar. We actually expect a positive boost from monetary policy, but not much, considering the thinner spread between domestic interest rates and international markets. More detail ...
• April-2023: Positive Rally Has Done Hope It Doesn’t Get Sluggish
  We expect the positive performance to persist in 3Q2023, although not as high as in 2Q2023. A slowing inflation environment should be supportive as the outlook for looser monetary conditions opens up, which supports rising bond prices. In addition, demand will remain solid, especially from domestic, considering the uncertainty on global financial markets is still high. Government debt will still be the favorite against this backdrop over riskier assets. In addition, we expect foreign funds to continue pursuing the domestic market given the higher returns, sovereign rating at investment grade, and stable rupiah. We expect the fiscal to be on a better path of sustainability by achieving a lower deficit after increasing during the pandemic, which will support the debt market from the supply side and sovereign rating. More detail ...
• February-2023: The Outlook for The Bond Market is Stable Amidst The Uncertainty
  We expect the government bond market to perform stably through the end of the first half of 2023. Domestic demand is strong, with government bonds becoming a more attractive option than other investments amid the current uncertainty. In addition, we expect foreign capital will enter, considering higher yields and the sovereign rating to be reaffirmed at investment grade. In addition, we expect the current account surplus will last into 1H2023, supporting the rupiah to remain stable. However, the market will still face high volatility amidst the transitional uncertainties in the world's growth prospects. Developed countries are still facing stubborn inflation rates to fall. Despite the slowdown, the percentage is still far above the target amid the tight labor market. Even though interest rate increases will likely be milder, the market is waiting for when the central bank will start to reverse its monetary policy. Turmoil in the banking sector in developed countries and the protracted geopolitical crisis will also be watched out for in the future. More detail ...
• December-2022: Starting in 2023: Where will The Bonds Market be Headed in The First Quarter?
  We expect the domestic bond market to face continued volatility in the first quarter of 2023. While we hope for positive foreign capital inflows for FY2023, their flows are expected to remain volatile as central banks in advanced economies still show a willingness to raise interest rates, although at a milder level, due to lingering inflationary pressures. Thus, the latest trend on the economic data released in 1Q2023 will significantly determine when they will raise interest rates again and how long they will hold high-interest rates. Thus, market participants will be looking forward to it to formulate an investment strategy. As a result, we don't expect them to take long positions yet. And the latest capital inflows at least illustrate where foreigners are hunting for short-term tenors and selling long-term tenors. Even though the market will still be volatile, we expect a subdued performance in the government bond market at the beginning of the year. Attractive pricing and solid domestic demand will underpin performance. Unfortunately, we saw a risk to performance earlier this year. In addition to volatile foreign flows, the market will face supply risks due to the front-loading strategy and high supply. More detail ...
• October-2022: Successfully Maintaining Performance in a Volatile Market
  We believe the domestic bond market will continue to maintain its performance during a volatile market. We see inflation lower than anticipated and lower than in developed economies prompting central banks to avoid aggressive monetary tightening. In addition, the trade balance surplus - and also because the domestic stock market remains attractive as the economy recovers more strongly - reduces translational risk pressure from foreign investment outflows in the bond market. Then the solid domestic demand supported the market performance, significantly offsetting the correction during investors relinquishing their holdings. More detail ...
• August-2022: Positive Amidst The Investment Cycle Shift
  Higher yields are inevitable as monetary normalization towards a tighter direction is not over yet. In addition, policy normalization has also been continuing in the domestic market, with most recently, the central bank raising policy rates. We expect translation risk to remain low considering the central bank's strong commitment to maintaining stability and the trade balance surplus. More detail ...
• June-2022: Banking Outlook in 2022: Continuing Gradual Recovery Trend
  We are of the view that the banking growth prospect will be selective. Higher tier banks will still benefit from the stronger ability in deposit collection, lower-cost funding, and higher loss provision, enabling them to be significantly more competitive. However, given that the economic recovery is more in a gradual fashion, the number of quality debtors has not recovered to the pre-pandemic level, meaning that the number of loan takeovers will still be high. This also means that growth in stronger banks comes at the expense of business contraction in other banks and will also affect their profitability. More detail ...
• April-2022: Expect Yield to Peak Soon
  We are in the view that the upward pressure is likely to persist for some time to come due to tighter monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and portfolio shifts, which are negative factors for the domestic bond market. And the increase took place not only in Indonesia but also in other countries. And, compared to them, the Indonesian bond market remains attractive due to positive real yields and well-maintained fundamentals. More detail ...
• February-2022: More Pressure on Board in The Near Future
  We believe that pressures on yields will intensify due to stronger negative external sentiment and tighter domestic monetary policy, which will begin normalization at the beginning of the first quarter of 2022. We expect yields to move in the range of 6.38%-6.74% with a tendency to the upper limit. Although we see some positive catalysts, an increase in yields is inevitable. More detail ...
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• June 2015 : Indonesian Economic Outlook
  Announcement of the Central Bureau of Statistics on Indonesia's economic growth during the first quarter of 2015 shows that the economic performance is less encouraging. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia's economy grew only by 4.7% (yoy). The economic growth is far lower than the growth in the first quarter of 2014 which was 5.14%. In fact, economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 is the lowest growth in the first quarter since 2009. The slowdown of economic growth was indicated by a slowdown in some leading indicators such as sales of cars and motorcycles, sales of cement, and electricity consumption. More detail ...
• January 2013: 2012 Economic Review
  Indonesia economy 2012, strong domestic demand offsets contracting external demand. Private consumption continues to be the main driver for growth cutbacks and the still weak financial system weighted growth prospect in the former while their spillover effects held back momentum in the latter, including the BRIC. The forecast for Indonesia was also trimmed down, but nonetheless its rate of growth remains well above many others; it is expected to be the second highest growing economy among the G-20. More detail ...
• January 2011 : Indonesia Economic Outlook - Indonesia remain attractive among the Emerging Market
  Indonesia’s strong fundamentals and macro economic stability attract portfolio or direct investments. Indonesia economic growth (GDP in %) is supported by strong domestic factors (consumption and investment) and high external demands, in particular demand for export in commodity. Households’ consumption in 2011 is estimated to continue to increase in the range of 4.8% - 5.3% due to improvement in income level, decline in unemployment rate, and the trend in commodity price increase which will further support exporters buying power. The income per capita indicator also goes up to USD3.000 per capita in 2010. This increase is three times higher than that of 2001. More detail ...
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