• Sectoral Review

    • sectoral review
    • sectoral review
      • August-2023: Banking Outlook in 2023: Steady Going Into Election Cycle
        The banking growth in 2023 has been relatively even across all Commercial Banks Group of Core Capital (Kelompok Bank berdasarkan Modal Inti or KBMI), unlike last year which was driven mainly by KBMI-4 banks. Lower-tier banks have been able to post more encouraging growth, attributed to a more stable business environment after the pandemic. More detail ...
      • June-2023: Indonesia Property Outlook
        PEFINDO is of the view that the property industry’s risk profile in Indonesia is moderate with a stable outlook over the next 12-18 months. As the country’s economy recovers from the pandemic, property developers are regaining momentum and implementing strategies to boost marketing sales and execute plans that were previously delayed due to the pandemic. However, there are several challenges that property developers will face, such as a higher interest rate environment and the upcoming political year. From the buyer’s side, higher interest rates may result in weakening demand and purchasing power as it will increase the cost of buying property. More detail ...
      • April-2023: Stable Outlook for Palm Oil in 2023
        PEFINDO views the outlook for the crude palm oil (CPO) industry to remain stable in the near to medium term, driven by its broad product applications particularly related to fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) as well as strong domestic demand to meet the B35 biodiesel program. CPO price is projected will be normalized to around RM3,800-4,000/ton after reaching its peak of around RM8,000/ton in March 2022, driven by increasing production and the potential recession in several exporting countries. More detail ...
      • February-2023: Lower Financing Growth Amid High Interest Rate Environment
        PEFINDO views the outlook for the multi-finance company industry as stable in the near to medium term, supported by the national economic recovery stimulating the industry's growth going forward, especially after the Government lifted the Restriction on Community Activities (PPKM) at the end of December 2022. In addition, we view that the enactment of the second booster vaccine will continue to keep the Covid positive case rate at a manageable level. However, we view the trend of rising interest rates to become the main challenge, and accordingly we expect the multi-finance companies’ net service assets growth will be lower this year. With the majority of industry's funding coming from external including banks and debt issuances, we view industry will experience pressure from the rising cost of funds, which will also impact the growth of financing portfolios. As of December 2022, net service assets were recorded at IDR581.8 trillion or grew 16.4% YoY compared to 2021 receivables of IDR500,0 trillion. Going forward, we expect growth to be lower at 7%-9%. In terms of contribution, automotive financing will remain the main contributor of 60%-70% of total industry receivables. In terms of financial performance, high cost of funds may put additional pressure to multi-finance companies' net interest margin. In addition, we expect provision expenses to be stable with no potential substantial increment compared to the pandemic period. More detail ...
      • December-2022: Stable Outlook for Domestic Pulp and Paper Industry
        PEFINDO is of the view that the outlook of the pulp and paper industry in Indonesia is stable with the risk profile of moderately high. Our view is attributable to relatively strong demand of pulp and paper products in the near to medium term, while additional supply will come into effect in the medium term. The demand is buoyed by the growing population and the change of lifestyle to online shopping with the rise of food and goods delivery, albeit with fears of global recession that may decelerate the global demand growth. More detail ...
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